Economic ministry says Russia’s GDP may rise 2% in 2020

MOSCOW, Sep 30 (PRIME) -- Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) may rise by 2% in 2020 if the government implements structural measures swiftly and efficiently, the Economic Development Ministry said in a forecast of social and economic development in 2020–2022 submitted to the State Duma, the parliament’s lower house, on Monday.

Under the baseline scenario, the GDP will rise by 1.7%, but under the target scenario it will rise by 2%. “The key difference between the baseline and the target scenarios is the presumption about the speed and efficiency of implementation of structural measures of state policy and in the speed of adaptation to the external economic conditions that worsened this year,” the ministry said.

“Under the target scenario, the GDP will rise by 2% in 2020. This implies a more active expansion of investment demand to 5.8% in 2020 against 5% in the baseline scenario, and to a swifter restoration of commodity exports by 6.1% in real terms in 2020 in the target scenario as compared with 3.3% in the baseline scenario following this year’s stagnation,” the ministry said.

Under the target scenario, inflation will restore to 4% next year, while the other scenario expects it to amount to only 3% in 2020.

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